Fear and loathing will power drama of EU debate

The whole world's a stage, and the backdrop to David Cameron's biggest performance so far will be Brussels. If the prime minister fumbles his lines, the curtain call could come early. 

David Cameron's performance will be key to the result of the referendum campaign

We are approaching a moment of high theatre within the long running drama of the UK's referendum on membership of the European Union. Mr Cameron has chosen to make much of this moment, a long-trailed denouement in the European soap opera.

Donald Tusk will set out the EU position on negotiations

One can almost hear the thud of the EastEnders theme tune behind his words. He has suggested, time and time again, the UK should stay in the EU - but only if the relationship changes.


 Many of those who are deeply political and deeply concerned are playing along with him, pretending to be agog with anticipation. In reality, most of them have made up their minds.

There are those for whom virtually no achievable change would be big enough. There are those who would vote to stay "in" even if Mr Cameron were rudely sent home with a flea in his ear.

Cries of ecstasy or despair will heighten the drama of the moment and reinforce their case, but distinguishing the genuine from the predestined will be important. So will the academic and media judgements on how far the hard-won changes achieve their stated objective.

For, I suspect, many voters could be swayed at this moment. Most people are not particularly gripped by this subject. Only dimly aware of the looming, currently dateless, referendum, the next few weeks may mark their first serious engagement with a momentous choice.

Key paper

This is the plan. The President of the Council, Donald Tusk, will soon set out how he hopes to solve Mr Cameron's problem. He will do it in a paper to all the EU's leaders, which they are expecting on Monday, 1 February.

It won't just be about migration, but that is still the hard problem. It will contain various options to meet Mr Cameron's desire to curb European migration in to the UK.

It will include variants of his idea of limiting in-work benefit for those who have worked in the UK for less than four years.