Predicting Turkey's next move in Syria

For Ankara, nothing is worse than a Kurdish corridor along Turkey's frontier with Syria.

YPG fighters during what they said was an offensive against ISIL to take control of Tishrin dam, Syria

 With the Turkish army targeting Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fighters in northern Syria while the Royal Saudi Air Force deploys fighter jets to Turkey's Incirlik air base, the prospect is raised of a joint Turkish-Saudi incursion.

To predict Ankara's next move, first, one should understand the Turkish administration's geopolitical perspective and threat perceptions. Under the cover of the Russian air-ground campaign, the Syrian army has not only reversed control of terrain massively, but has changed the balance of power by clearing key rebel bastions along the primary axis of the conflict.


More alarmingly for Turkey, recent developments on the battleground caught many Turkish analysts off-guard. As Bashar al-Assad's forces were preparing for a decisive siege of Aleppo, Ankara focused on halting the regime's northern push and preventing a large influx of refugees.

Dangerous gains

Meanwhile, shockingly, YPG, the armed wing of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) affiliated Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), has started to make dangerous gains between Tal Rifaat and Azaz, having captured a key jumping-off point, the Menagh air base. 

In the eyes of Turkish decision-makers, if there is something worse than seeing a regime takeover in Azaz, it might be a complete PYD corridor along its frontier with Syria.