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Thursday, 22 September 2016

DR Congo protests: Why have they erupted?

An injured Congolese opposition supporter walks outside the headquarters of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) during violent protests to press President Joseph Kabila to step down, in the Democratic Republic of Congo's capital Kinshasa, September 20

The security situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo appears to be deteriorating.

The headquarters of thee opposition parties have been torched in the capital, Kinshasa, hours after an opposition-organised protest triggered violent clashes with police, leaving at least 17 people dead.

What lies behind the opposition protests? 
Flares are launched by DRCongo Police forces during a demonstration in Goma on September 19, 2016.
Police have vowed to main law and order in DR Congo
The opposition fears that President Joseph Kabila will prove to be similar to some of his regional counterparts by hanging on to power through sleight of hand.
joseph kabila
Mr Kabila, 45, is one of Africa's youngest rulers
Their concerns have been fuelled by the fact that the government is laying the groundwork for postponing presidential elections due in November.

Following a case brought by the ruling party, the Constitutional Court - comprising the country's most senior judges - ruled in July that Mr Kabila can remain in office if logistical difficulties force a delay in the elections.

And a delay is likely, as the electoral commission has said it needs at least until July 2017 to register more than 30 million voters in a country similar in size to Western Europe, but with one of the worst transport and communication links in the world.
Supporters of Congo opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, hold up an cross that symbolizes no third term for Congo President Joseph Kabila, during a political rally in Kinshasa, Congo, Wednesday, July 31, 2016
Opposition supporters say they will not allow Mr Kabila to remain in office beyond the end of the year
And its east is mostly lawless with myriad militias controlling patches of territory, making voter registration more difficult. So far, Mr Kabila is tight-lipped, leaving his political allies to do his bidding for him.


Why won't he face the electorate? 

He cannot - and that is his problem. Since taking power following the assassination of his father in 2001, he has won two elections.

The constitution bars him from seeking a third term. So the best way for him to remain in power is to delay the election.

Another option is to lift the two-term presidential limit, but Mr Kabila might struggle to garner a two-thirds parliamentary majority to push through such an unpopular constitutional amendment.

And he may be aware of the fate of other leaders who tinkered with the constitution - especially Burkina Faso's long-serving ruler Blaise Compaore who was overthrown in a popular uprising in 2014 following his bid to alter the constitution so that he could seek re-election.